The proof is the live forward record.
A backtest can be curve-fit; a live, point-in-time record can’t. So the real proof of IOX is the forward track record — every daily score saved before the outcome is known, then checked against what actually happened. It is early, and we say so plainly: full performance metrics publish here only once the sample is statistically significant.
Where we are right now
Live forward recording opened 29 May 2026. Every day the engine scores its ~50-coin universe and stores each score point-in-time — so nothing here is fitted after the fact. Outcomes fill in as each horizon matures:
Recording forward 1d outcomes since 29 May 2026.
Recording forward 7d outcomes since 29 May 2026 — the primary IOX horizon.
Recording forward 30d outcomes since 29 May 2026; first cohorts maturing now. A longer sanity check — past the signal’s strongest 1–14d range.
Scored point-in-time since 29 May 2026; first 90d outcomes mature ~27 Aug 2026. Long-run context, not where the edge is expected.
Loading the live record…
The raw record — verify it yourself
Every daily score is saved before the outcome is known. Below is the most recent day whose 7-day outcomes have fully matured (2026-10-11) — and you can download the entire record as CSV and check every row yourself.
| Asset | IOX | P·7d | Funding | Entry | 1d | 7d | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAND | 100 | 56.0% | -0.101% | $0.0674 | -2.2% | -11.9% | matured |
| TRX | 98 | 51.6% | -0.026% | $0.331 | -0.2% | +0.9% | matured |
| MANA | 96 | 50.5% | -0.006% | $0.0954 | +2.2% | -8.5% | matured |
| ZIL | 94 | 50.3% | -0.003% | $0.00355 | +3.8% | -36.0% | matured |
| XLM | 92 | 50.2% | -0.001% | $0.197 | +3.2% | -10.1% | matured |
| JST | 90 | 50.2% | -0.001% | $0.137 | +0.6% | -0.9% | matured |
| ETH | 88 | 50.2% | -0.001% | $2,506.63 | +1.2% | -4.4% | matured |
| SOL | 86 | 50.1% | +0.001% | $110.4 | +0.7% | -6.5% | matured |
| XRP | 84 | 50.0% | +0.002% | $1.4 | +0.7% | -7.7% | matured |
| BNB | 82 | 50.0% | +0.002% | $750.51 | +0.5% | -4.4% | matured |
| XTZ | 80 | 50.0% | +0.003% | $0.300 | +8.2% | +0.4% | matured |
| BCH | 78 | 50.0% | +0.003% | $280.02 | +2.2% | -1.9% | matured |
| ALGO | 76 | 49.9% | +0.003% | $0.118 | +6.9% | -5.4% | matured |
| BAT | 73 | 49.9% | +0.003% | $0.131 | +22.5% | +36.2% | matured |
| DOGE | 71 | 49.9% | +0.003% | $0.0858 | +1.2% | -7.7% | matured |
| ATOM | 69 | 49.9% | +0.004% | $1.95 | -1.5% | -12.9% | matured |
| LTC | 67 | 49.9% | +0.004% | $63.98 | +1.0% | -8.2% | matured |
| AXS | 65 | 49.9% | +0.004% | $1.24 | +1.6% | -16.7% | matured |
| ETC | 63 | 49.9% | +0.004% | $8.4 | +1.0% | -7.3% | matured |
| AVAX | 61 | 49.9% | +0.004% | $10.37 | +5.9% | -5.9% | matured |
| LINK | 59 | 49.9% | +0.004% | $13.02 | +2.8% | -8.2% | matured |
| DASH | 57 | 49.9% | +0.004% | $51.17 | +3.7% | -5.4% | matured |
| VET | 55 | 49.9% | +0.004% | $0.00785 | +1.7% | -14.1% | matured |
| AAVE | 53 | 49.9% | +0.005% | $168.88 | +2.1% | -10.4% | matured |
| UNI | 51 | 49.9% | +0.005% | $7.61 | +1.9% | -6.1% | matured |
| ENJ | 49 | 49.8% | +0.005% | $0.0318 | +0.2% | -10.4% | matured |
| DOT | 47 | 49.8% | +0.005% | $1.25 | +0.2% | -11.0% | matured |
| ADA | 45 | 49.8% | +0.005% | $0.251 | +0.4% | -12.6% | matured |
| INJ | 43 | 49.8% | +0.005% | $7.6 | +1.9% | +13.1% | matured |
| SUSHI | 41 | 49.8% | +0.006% | $0.238 | +1.4% | -8.2% | matured |
| FIL | 39 | 49.8% | +0.006% | $1.12 | +10.7% | -5.4% | matured |
| SNX | 37 | 49.8% | +0.006% | $0.243 | +0.9% | -11.6% | matured |
| CRV | 35 | 49.8% | +0.006% | $0.359 | +3.8% | -3.7% | matured |
| HBAR | 33 | 49.7% | +0.006% | $0.0921 | +2.2% | -7.5% | matured |
| NEAR | 31 | 49.7% | +0.006% | $5.32 | +11.3% | -8.8% | matured |
| RUNE | 29 | 49.7% | +0.007% | $0.693 | +0.7% | -8.7% | matured |
| FET | 27 | 49.7% | +0.007% | $0.225 | +6.7% | -15.5% | matured |
| COMP | 24 | 49.7% | +0.007% | $24.98 | -0.8% | -14.2% | matured |
| ZEC | 22 | 49.7% | +0.007% | $1,221.68 | +4.7% | -8.1% | matured |
| THETA | 20 | 49.7% | +0.007% | $0.227 | -0.2% | -15.0% | matured |
| EGLD | 18 | 49.7% | +0.008% | $4.05 | -0.5% | -11.5% | matured |
| KSM | 16 | 49.7% | +0.008% | $5.03 | +1.3% | -14.6% | matured |
| ICP | 14 | 49.6% | +0.008% | $3.13 | +11.9% | -6.5% | matured |
| GRT | 12 | 49.6% | +0.008% | $0.0271 | +3.8% | -10.6% | matured |
| YFI | 10 | 49.6% | +0.009% | $2,411.65 | +0.1% | -8.3% | matured |
| CHZ | 8 | 49.6% | +0.009% | $0.0155 | +1.6% | -10.4% | matured |
| NEO | 6 | 49.5% | +0.010% | $2.57 | +3.8% | -12.5% | matured |
| XMR | 4 | 49.5% | +0.010% | $522.37 | +3.2% | +10.2% | matured |
| IOTA | 2 | 49.5% | +0.010% | $0.0514 | +2.8% | -9.9% | matured |
| EOS | 0 | 49.5% | +0.010% | $0.103 | -0.1% | +8.0% | matured |
Raw stored returns (absolute, not excess-vs-field). Model: iox-v1 · S=-z(funding_7d) · 1 factor (out-of-sample-tested). Early sample — not yet statistically significant; the full CSV is the complete record, including any gaps. Excluded rows are outcomes we quarantine as data anomalies — a coin’s price feed broke (e.g. a token redenomination), so its realized return is meaningless; the raw value stays in the CSV (flagged) but is kept out of every metric. One convention note, in the open: each row stores the point-in-time entry price used when the score was saved, and every return from 16 Jun 2026 onward reproduces exactly as (the day-N opening price ÷ that entry price − 1). Cohorts on or before 15 Jun 2026 were filled with an earlier exit convention (the price at fill time, not the day’s open), so some of those early rows won’t reproduce to the cent — the differences are a fraction of a percent, with no look-ahead and no change to any direction.
What publishes here — once it’s significant
When the live sample is large enough to mean something (months, not weeks — non-overlapping windows make honest significance slow), this page will show the real numbers, against a clear benchmark:
- Calibration — does “P = 54%” actually land near 54%? (reliability curve)
- Hit-rate by IOX bucket — do higher scores outperform more often?
- Average forward return by bucket — and the spread top-vs-bottom, after the costs a real trade pays.
- Interval coverage — does the 80% uncertainty band actually contain ~80% of outcomes?
Until then: this is early, directional data — not a performance claim, and not investment advice. Survivorship-corrected backtests informed the design, but a backtest is a hypothesis, not a result.
The bar is fixed in advance. “Significant” here is not “whenever a number first crosses a line” — that is how honest-looking results get manufactured (check every day, publish the moment it dips). The threshold was written into the code before the live sample matured, so the goalposts can’t move: 26 non-overlapping 7-day windows (~6 months of live data), a mean rank-IC whose 95% interval excludes zero at |t| ≥ 2, still holding after delisted coins are added back, after real trading costs, and in both calm and stormy regimes. We publish the verdict when that pre-set bar is reached — whatever it says, pass or fail.
What already failed — shown, not buried
The honesty is the product. Candidate factors that didn’t survive the same gauntlet funding crowding passed were dropped — and we show them:
Market-level candidates — stablecoin “dry powder”, options skew / DVOL, futures term-structure basis, implied-minus-realised vol — were also tested, but each is one number for the whole market (or covers only 1–2 coins), so it cannot RANK a 50-coin cross-section. Their honest home is a regime/context readout, never a per-coin score.