The proof is the live forward record.
A backtest can be curve-fit; a live, point-in-time record can’t. So the real proof of IOX is the forward track record — every daily score saved before the outcome is known, then checked against what actually happened. It is early, and we say so plainly: full performance metrics publish here only once the sample is statistically significant.
Where we are right now
Live forward recording opened 29 May 2026. Every day the engine scores its ~50-coin universe and stores each score point-in-time — so nothing here is fitted after the fact. Outcomes fill in as each horizon matures:
Recording forward 1d outcomes since 29 May 2026.
Recording forward 7d outcomes since 29 May 2026 — the primary IOX horizon.
Recording forward 30d outcomes since 29 May 2026; first cohorts maturing now. A longer sanity check — past the signal’s strongest 1–14d range.
Scored point-in-time since 29 May 2026; first 90d outcomes mature ~27 Aug 2026. Long-run context, not where the edge is expected.
Loading the live record…
The raw record — verify it yourself
Every daily score is saved before the outcome is known. Below is the most recent day whose 7-day outcomes have fully matured (2026-07-05) — and you can download the entire record as CSV and check every row yourself.
| Asset | IOX | P·7d | Funding | Entry | 1d | 7d | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TRX | 100 | 52.7% | -0.018% | $0.325 | +1.1% | +1.2% | matured |
| ATOM | 98 | 51.7% | -0.010% | $1.6 | -0.8% | -1.8% | matured |
| INJ | 96 | 51.1% | -0.005% | $4.84 | -0.8% | +1.8% | matured |
| MANA | 94 | 51.0% | -0.004% | $0.0704 | +0.5% | -0.2% | matured |
| IOTA | 92 | 50.8% | -0.002% | $0.0394 | -3.5% | +0.1% | matured |
| XRP | 90 | 50.4% | +0.001% | $1.16 | -0.7% | -5.7% | matured |
| BCH | 88 | 50.4% | +0.001% | $234.26 | +3.4% | +4.2% | matured |
| NEO | 86 | 50.4% | +0.001% | $2 | -0.5% | -2.6% | matured |
| XLM | 84 | 50.3% | +0.002% | $0.207 | -2.4% | -11.0% | matured |
| AXS | 82 | 50.3% | +0.002% | $1.04 | -1.9% | -5.7% | matured |
| YFI | 80 | 50.3% | +0.002% | $1,840.29 | +1.7% | +12.3% | matured |
| JST | 78 | 50.2% | +0.003% | $0.0903 | +1.8% | +12.4% | matured |
| CHZ | 76 | 50.2% | +0.003% | $0.0184 | +0.3% | -7.3% | matured |
| ENJ | 73 | 50.2% | +0.003% | $0.0303 | -3.2% | -7.7% | matured |
| HBAR | 71 | 50.2% | +0.003% | $0.0766 | -1.0% | -11.2% | matured |
| ICP | 69 | 50.1% | +0.004% | $2.25 | -2.3% | +0.2% | matured |
| XTZ | 67 | 50.0% | +0.004% | $0.238 | +6.1% | -3.3% | matured |
| AVAX | 65 | 50.0% | +0.005% | $6.98 | -1.2% | -7.5% | matured |
| ZIL | 63 | 49.9% | +0.005% | $0.00315 | -1.3% | -4.3% | matured |
| AAVE | 61 | 49.9% | +0.005% | $88.74 | +0.1% | +10.6% | matured |
| SOL | 59 | 49.9% | +0.005% | $81.8 | -0.6% | -6.5% | matured |
| GRT | 57 | 49.9% | +0.005% | $0.0188 | -1.3% | -7.2% | matured |
| SNX | 55 | 49.9% | +0.005% | $0.231 | -0.8% | -2.0% | matured |
| BNB | 53 | 49.9% | +0.005% | $576.18 | +2.3% | -0.6% | matured |
| SAND | 51 | 49.9% | +0.006% | $0.0507 | -0.0% | -4.4% | matured |
| ALGO | 49 | 49.9% | +0.006% | $0.0906 | -0.1% | -7.2% | matured |
| NEAR | 47 | 49.9% | +0.006% | $2 | +0.8% | -6.5% | matured |
| DOT | 45 | 49.9% | +0.006% | $0.886 | -0.7% | -4.2% | matured |
| ETH | 43 | 49.9% | +0.006% | $1,782.47 | -0.1% | +0.1% | matured |
| DOGE | 41 | 49.8% | +0.006% | $0.0778 | -0.4% | -6.5% | matured |
| LTC | 39 | 49.8% | +0.006% | $44.98 | +1.9% | -1.4% | matured |
| VET | 37 | 49.8% | +0.006% | $0.00482 | -1.1% | +1.9% | matured |
| CRV | 35 | 49.7% | +0.007% | $0.212 | +1.0% | -1.9% | matured |
| ADA | 33 | 49.7% | +0.007% | $0.192 | -1.5% | -14.3% | matured |
| LINK | 31 | 49.7% | +0.007% | $8.01 | +0.3% | -1.4% | matured |
| ZEC | 29 | 49.7% | +0.007% | $466.57 | -0.8% | +8.8% | matured |
| ETC | 27 | 49.6% | +0.008% | $7.28 | -1.4% | -5.3% | matured |
| UNI | 24 | 49.6% | +0.008% | $3.21 | -1.4% | +13.5% | matured |
| KSM | 22 | 49.6% | +0.008% | $3.3 | -0.5% | -0.3% | matured |
| FIL | 20 | 49.6% | +0.008% | $0.798 | +0.3% | -3.6% | matured |
| EGLD | 18 | 49.5% | +0.008% | $2.75 | -1.9% | +5.7% | matured |
| THETA | 16 | 49.5% | +0.008% | $0.145 | -2.2% | +4.3% | matured |
| RUNE | 14 | 49.5% | +0.009% | $0.415 | -0.3% | -2.8% | matured |
| FET | 12 | 49.5% | +0.009% | $0.184 | -2.8% | -14.1% | matured |
| DASH | 10 | 49.4% | +0.010% | $35.88 | -0.8% | -5.8% | matured |
| SUSHI | 8 | 49.4% | +0.010% | $0.164 | -1.5% | -0.7% | matured |
| BAT | 6 | 49.4% | +0.010% | $0.0861 | +4.6% | -2.1% | matured |
| XMR | 4 | 49.4% | +0.010% | $328.47 | -0.5% | -1.7% | matured |
| EOS | 2 | 49.4% | +0.010% | $0.0721 | +0.4% | +3.1% | matured |
| COMP | 0 | 49.4% | +0.010% | $17.14 | -1.3% | -0.5% | matured |
Raw stored returns (absolute, not excess-vs-field). Model: iox-v1 · S=-z(funding_7d) · 1 factor (out-of-sample-tested). Early sample — not yet statistically significant; the full CSV is the complete record, including any gaps. Excluded rows are outcomes we quarantine as data anomalies — a coin’s price feed broke (e.g. a token redenomination), so its realized return is meaningless; the raw value stays in the CSV (flagged) but is kept out of every metric.
What publishes here — once it’s significant
When the live sample is large enough to mean something (months, not weeks — non-overlapping windows make honest significance slow), this page will show the real numbers, against a clear benchmark:
- Calibration — does “P = 54%” actually land near 54%? (reliability curve)
- Hit-rate by IOX bucket — do higher scores outperform more often?
- Average forward return by bucket — and the spread top-vs-bottom, after the costs a real trade pays.
- Interval coverage — does the 80% uncertainty band actually contain ~80% of outcomes?
Until then: this is early, directional data — not a performance claim, and not investment advice. Survivorship-corrected backtests informed the design, but a backtest is a hypothesis, not a result.
What already failed — shown, not buried
The honesty is the product. Candidate factors that didn’t survive the same gauntlet funding crowding passed were dropped — and we show them:
Market-level candidates — stablecoin “dry powder”, options skew / DVOL, futures term-structure basis, implied-minus-realised vol — were also tested, but each is one number for the whole market (or covers only 1–2 coins), so it cannot RANK a 50-coin cross-section. Their honest home is a regime/context readout, never a per-coin score.