ioxer
INDEX OF EXPECTATION · LIVE

From crypto noise
to a calibrated read.

IOX ranks every coin (0–100) by the one factor that held up in honest out-of-sample testing — funding crowding — alongside a separate calibrated probability with its uncertainty. A rank, not a guaranteed signal.

When our probability (separate from the rank) says 54%, it landed near 54% in walk-forward backtests — a modest, not-yet-proven tilt. Live forward verification is accumulating in the open.

WHAT IT’S FOR

When everyone piles in,
the trade is already crowded.

Ioxer reads one thing across the ~50 liquid coins it covers — how crowded the leverage has become — and flags the overheated ones that have historically lagged the average coin. It’s a risk radar, not a buy button: a calibrated read of the crowd, shown with its uncertainty, never a guaranteed call.

THE IOX ENGINE

Read the crowd,
not the hype.

IOX measures how crowded the leverage has become across the ~50 liquid coins it covers — the one signal that held up over ~5 years of honest out-of-sample testing — and turns it into a calibrated probability, with its uncertainty always shown. Not a guess. Not hype.

HOW IT WORKS

Only what survives an honest test.

Most platforms stack dozens of “signals” and still can’t prove an edge. We publish only factors that survived their own out-of-sample test — today that’s funding crowding, with more shown in the open as they pass.

01Measure crowding

We read 7-day funding across every liquid perpetual — how crowded the leverage has become on each coin.

02Calibrate, not guess

The signal is fit on ~5 years of out-of-sample history. The output is a probability with its uncertainty — never a confident guess.

03Score and verify

Every covered coin gets an IOX 0–100 today, and every call is tracked forward in the open.

THE ONE FACTORFunding crowding

The one signal that held up out-of-sample — directionally; the live record is still proving it.

HONEST OUTPUTProbability + band

Every score ships with the uncertainty around it.

COVERAGE80% interval coverage

On out-of-sample data, the band covered ~80% of outcomes.

NO HYPENegative results too

Factors that failed are shown, not buried.

HOW WE READ A PICK

Measured against bitcoin, not dollars.

Crypto moves as a herd, so a coin’s raw dollar move is mostly the market. We strip out bitcoin — the tide — and measure each pick against it.

Set how much each one moved — or tap an example:
Your coin moved+12%
Bitcoin the whole market+4%
In dollars+12%mostly the market
On its own, vs bitcoin+7.7%beating bitcoin

In dollars your coin did +12%. But the whole market (bitcoin) did +4%, so a lot of that gain was just the market rising. On its own, your coin still beat bitcoin.

How we measure a pick →

WHY IOX

Everyone sells you a number.
Almost no one tells you how often it’s right.

IOX is one signal that held up in honest out-of-sample testing, delivered as a calibrated probability with its uncertainty — and a public, point-in-time track record building that proof in the open (early; not yet statistically significant). No hype. No kitchen-sink of invented indicators.

Crypto funding rate & crowding radar — Ioxer